Dear Joe,

If I have not sent you official reports on the political happenings of the past month, it is not because I did not regard the situation as grave. My views may not be shared by the Minister and I felt that he might have a legitimate grievance if I took advantage of the accident of his absence to present perhaps a different picture to the one he has seen and for all I know still sees.

The conclusion which I have come to after twenty one months in Berlin is that the situation in Europe makes war sooner or later inevitable. That is quite apart from dangers having their origin in the Far East. The Haves are determined to hold on to what they got out of the peace treaties and the Have-nots have abandoned any hope they may have had of securing redress by peaceful means. Nobody wants a war just now, as the Haves have waited too long for a preventive war to have any certainty of success and the Have-nots are not yet strong enough to hope to gain anything by starting one.

The strength of Germany's position lies in the facts that the people to a man are smarting under the indignities and injustices of Versailles and that they have been disciplined into complete and unquestioning obedience to the Führer. They hear of nothing but Germany's wrongs and rights. Even the most intelligent Germans cannot understand that France or any other country can genuinely regard as a menace to their security the steps which Germans are convinced are taken merely to restore the national pride and self-confidence and to bring Germany back to her rightful position amongst the nations.

No one who has eyes to see or ears to hear can have the smallest doubt that there is a dangerous military spirit in Germany today which is skilfully fostered by the Government. The youth of the country have ceased to belong to their parents. From the age of seven or eight onwards they are to be seen marching in military formations, parading and singing martial songs. Those of from 12 to 14 onwards who are in the Hitler Jugend assemble in the evenings four times a week and listen to lectures on blood and race and so on and are also with their units from 7 o'clock on Sunday mornings until late at night. The young girls have their own separate organisations. The adult population, apart from the para-military and purely party organisations, have their Sport Units, Labour Service Units, Civilian Air Defence Units and countless others.

All of this, and also the measures for the elimination of the unfit and non-Germanic elements, constitutes, one is asked to believe, no danger to any other country and merely aims at securing a virile and disciplined people which will be able to protect itself from aggression should aggression come. I for one do not believe it. But I do firmly believe that Germany does not want war just now in spite of all the progress that she has made in her preparations over the past two years. It must have been a surprise to many to learn that the German air force was at least equal to the British, and it is much more likely that Hitler in so informing Simon understated the truth rather than overstated it. At the same time Germany was never more isolated, even during the Great War, than she is at the present moment and it would seem to be nothing short of lunacy on her part to provoke trouble. I may mention in passing that a responsible official at the Foreign Office with whom I was talking within the past ten days expressed the view that except for Russia, Italy was at the present moment Germany's worst enemy.

[matter omitted]

So far as the present moment is concerned the two most hopeful considerations are that a preventive war seems to be by general opinion ruled out (I understand that the French military people here say that it is out of the question) and that Germany is not ready. Her situation with regard to stocks and production of oil and other necessaries would make it impossible for her to conduct a war at present unless she could obtain supplies from Poland or Russia, which seems more than unlikely. She is rapidly remedying this deficiency and one hears of plans for increasing the sheep population from 31/2 million to 10 million within the next couple of years.

The general opinion amongst the people that I meet seems to be that the next step will be the complete encirclement of Germany which it is hoped will secure peace for a couple of years at least.