Under Secretary of State talked about general situation more fully than usual. I gathered there would be no declaration of war unless Germany makes one. I said it would be long drawn out struggle. He said that would depend on imponderables. Germany had lost in man power a greater percentage of forces than Russians, and had also lost heavily in materials. Though German output was still great, replacements were becoming more difficult for them: other imponderables were tough winter ahead for Germany and German-occupied countries, growing strength of the British in the Middle East, attitude of Japan who had now reached point where they must decide definitely between returning to position before they joined the Axis or proceed with their expansion policy.